Published March 30th, 2017
According to a new study from Digital TV Research, the number of pay-TV subs in North America is predicted to fall by 10 million by 2022. Digital TV Research says the 9% decline to 102 million subscriptions does not indicate a massive cord-cutting problem.
However, the number of non-pay homes will climb from 20.69 million to 41.56 million over the same period [the number of total households will increase by 11 million. This includes non-TV households]. To put it another way, pay TV penetration will drop from the peak of 87.4% in 2013 to 75.2% by 2022.
The number of pay-TV subscribers declined by 2 million in both 2015 and in 2016. However, the rate of decline will slow from now on, although the 2022 total will be 5 million lower than the end-2016 total, according to the North America Pay TV Forecasts report.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, explained: “Where are the lost subscribers in the decade to 2022 going? Some analog cable subscribers will give up paying for TV services rather than convert to an often more expensive digital platform.” He continued: “Cord-cutting is also a factor. It has been somewhat exacerbated by the traditional pay TV operators starting their own OTT platforms: satellite TV platform Dish provides Sling TV and DirecTV Now has recently started. Other distractions include Hulu, HBO Now and, of course, Netflix and Amazon Prime Video.”
Cable has been losing subscribers since 2011. This is partly due to the fact that not all of the 18 million analog cable subscribers at end-2010 will convert to digital cable TV platforms – or any digital pay TV platform for that matter.
The free-to-air DTT household total will climb by 10 million between 2016 and 2022 to 31 million – presumably many of these sets will gather dust as these homes will have limited channel choice.
The digital cable TV total will remain flat at about 57 million subs from 2015. Satellite TV will also stay flat at about 36 million from 2015. However, IPTV will lose subscribers. Much of the IPTV loss is attributable to AT&T encouraging its U-Verse subscribers to its DirecTV satellite platform. In Canada, Bell is doing the opposite: encouraging its satellite TV subs to convert to its IPTV platform.
Pay TV revenues [subscriptions and PPV] in North America peaked in 2015 at $108.58 billion. Revenues will fall by 12.7% – or by $13.76 billion – to $94.82 billion in 2022. Cable revenues will decline by $12.13 billion – $2.19 billion less from analog cable and $9.94 billion lower for digital cable. Satellite TV will grow by $1.93 billion, but IPTV will fall by $3.55 billion – or by a massive 32.5%.
Source: Digital TV Research
Jan 22, 2019
There will be more than 777 million global SVOD subscriptions by 2023, more than double from 2017 according to Ooyala’s new State of the Broadcast Industry 2019 report, which also found that the momentum only stands to increase.
The report – which draws on Ooyala’s own data and analysis as well as research conducted by other organizations – also underscores that viewers of all ages are increasingly adopting streaming services as their primary source of TV content. While Boomers and the Silent Generation (those born before World War II) remain the lifeblood of traditional broadcasters, they too are increasingly adopting over-the-top (OTT) and video on demand (VOD) platforms.
2018 was a year of significant change in the broadcast industry. There was a surge in M&A activity, an increase in the amount of time consumers spent with SVOD and AVOD content and a significant decline in pay-TV subscribers in North America as viewers changed how they watch TV… OTT jumped into the mainstream. There’s even more change in the cards for 2019.
Among US adults 50-64, OTT viewing increased 45% between 2016 and 2017; among US adults 65+, viewing was up 36%.
The report also postulated that mobile platforms will be a significant factor in OTT consumption in the future, given that estimates say video could make up as much as 90% of all 5G traffic.
“For OTT, that means faster and smoother delivery of video, no buffering, higher resolution, and a better, more engaging experience for users; for AVOD companies specifically, it will foster the collection of better, deeper data that could be used to better personalize advertising,” said the report.
The lesson for traditional broadcasters, the report noted, is to adopt the mindset of a diversified media company – as more programmers and distributors are joining, rather than fighting, the push into OTT.
“Subscription and ad-supported OTT services are steadily replacing traditional content delivery, and there’s no end to the opportunity to create connections with a global audience,” said Ooyala principal analyst Jim O'Neill. “OTT is not traditional TV. It thrives upon consumer choice, often random interaction, and the convenience of viewing when, where and on what device a consumer chooses. It thrives upon its own ability to iterate in order to respond to the changing conditions of the new TV environment.”
Meanwhile, as mobile viewing soars, it turns out that screen size still matters to the majority of consumers. A full 40% of US consumers who replaced a TV between October 2016 and October 2018 said they wanted to purchase a bigger screen, per The NPD Group. And consumers are going all-in on 4K UHD, driven largely by SVOD services, like Netflix, and the promise of 4K and UHD content from major sporting events, like the Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup.
“Content owners have seen a massive increase in the demand for their products,” continued O'Neill. “That will continue as OTT services push out across the globe and original content maintains — and grows — its value. It’s becoming increasingly important for media companies – both big and small – to closely monitor and control the content supply chain.”
New OTT Services Aren’t Saturating the Market, they ARE the Market
Is the influx of new OTT services creating saturation in the market? Not by a long shot. While there’s likely a limit as to how many SVOD services users really are ready to pay for, that upper limit hasn’t yet been reached. And, as we see more channels become available a la carte, that limit may continue to rise, especially as younger consumers — who see streaming as the norm — grow older.
Oct 18, 2014
Mar 25, 2019